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Author math gods.
IvIarkgraham
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Registered: 27th Mar 04
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17th Dec 07 at 17:42   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
odds of not hitting it are 2 in 3
Hammer
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17th Dec 07 at 17:44   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
ffs is there something in the air tonight?

I was fucking terrible at maths but some folk here take the biscuit!
Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 17:45   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
yea, but then whats chance of not hitting it in 21 turn's in a row,

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taty
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17th Dec 07 at 18:16   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
i think its 1 in 10460353203
each 1 time it has a 1 in 3 chance
but to miss a 1-3 chance twice in a row is 1 in 9 (3x3)
to miss it 3 times in a row is 1 in 27 (3x3x3) and so on
Hamish
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17th Dec 07 at 18:18   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
i think the answer is 4.6
jim_r1
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17th Dec 07 at 18:42   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by taty
i think its 1 in 10460353203
each 1 time it has a 1 in 3 chance
but to miss a 1-3 chance twice in a row is 1 in 9 (3x3)
to miss it 3 times in a row is 1 in 27 (3x3x3) and so on


3 to the power of 21






[Edited on 17-12-2007 by jim_r1]
drunkenfool
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17th Dec 07 at 18:44   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
1/ (3^21) = 1 in 10460353203 chance
Jodi_the_g
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17th Dec 07 at 18:47   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Dan
yea, but then whats chance of not hitting it in 21 turn's in a row,


2/3 of not getting it.
1/3 of getting it.

of course it will never be like that but the chances are still the same its like tossing a coin a million times 500,000 should be heads and 500,000 should be tails but it will never work out like that.

The more you do though the more chance of getting closer to the true odds.
Jodi_the_g
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17th Dec 07 at 18:48   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
Oh sorry see what your getting at yeah its

1 in 10460353203 chance.
AndyKent
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17th Dec 07 at 18:55   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
The key word is 'Probability' not 'certainty'.
Robin
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17th Dec 07 at 18:56   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
Maths.
allza
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17th Dec 07 at 19:13   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
I make it 1 in 9975 chance. If you want to get it on your 21st go then you will have 20 goes of not getting it at a 2 in 3 chance. then on your last go would be 1 in 3. You have to do 2/3 to the power 20 the times by 1/3. Im pretty sure thats correct
Nath
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17th Dec 07 at 19:15   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
42, the answer to everything is 42.
allza
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17th Dec 07 at 19:17   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
If you wanted to hit it 21 times in a row then it would be 1/3 to power 21 which wold give you a 1 in 10460353203 chance
AndyKent
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17th Dec 07 at 19:17   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by allza
I make it 1 in 9975 chance. If you want to get it on your 21st go then you will have 20 goes of not getting it at a 2 in 3 chance. then on your last go would be 1 in 3. You have to do 2/3 to the power 20 the times by 1/3. Im pretty sure thats correct


No, what was said earlier is correct. Every time you go, its a 1 in 3 chance. Doesn't matter how many goes it takes, its still 1 in 3.
allza
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17th Dec 07 at 19:21   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
Yes but if you want the probability of hitting that 1 in 3 chance 21 times in a row its 1/3 to the power 21 or however mant times you are wanting.
AndyKent
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17th Dec 07 at 19:22   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
That is true, but not what was asked

[Edited on 17-12-2007 by aPk]
allza
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17th Dec 07 at 19:26   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
Not what he asked but what he meant lol


[Edited on 17-12-2007 by allza]
Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 19:27   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
is it what was asked, i may just have worded it different to how u interpreted it.

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Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 19:28   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
wouldnt 1/ 3 to power of 21 give u the chance of hitting it 21 times in a row tho? not 21 misses? would it not be 2/ 3 to the power of 21???

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allza
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17th Dec 07 at 19:29   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
Yep if you wanted not to hit 21 times in a row it would be 2/3 to the power 21
taty
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17th Dec 07 at 19:52   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Dan
wouldnt 1/ 3 to power of 21 give u the chance of hitting it 21 times in a row tho? not 21 misses? would it not be 2/ 3 to the power of 21???

sorry i thought the 1 in 3 was to miss it not hit it
M2RTY
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17th Dec 07 at 20:17   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
fucking worry about some people.....

example:

chance of getting a head on your FIRST flip

= 0.5 x 1

= 0.5


chance of getting a head on FIRST and SECOND flips

= 0.5 x 0.5

= 0.25

chance of getting a head on THREE flips in a row

= 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5

= 0.125



so 1/3 of getting it means 2/3 NOT getting it

2/3 over 21 goes =

2/3 to the power of 21
M2RTY
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17th Dec 07 at 20:17   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
^ as a decimal
Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 21:23   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
so what does it work out to? so its basically 0.6666666666666666666667 to the power of 21??

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