AndyKent
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Registered: 3rd Sep 05
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TBH, I don't know what to believe. None of you can say whether what he's saying is true or false though can you.
In your opinion, what he said was rubbish, but short of trying it yourself (which you can't) you can't say with 100% conviction.
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
Location: Im the real one!
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quote:
Originally posted by Nath
True story. Doesnt matter they are next to one another. It has no relation to if they should come out.
Exactly. People have to learn to differentiate between something that has a memory and can be predicted, and something that has no memory at all and therefore unpredictable.
Taking it down to one number a week and not six, if 1 came out one week, the next week the machine would have just as much chance (1 in 49) to throw out a 1. Then the next week a 1 in 49 chance to throw a 1, etc. etc.
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BabyBlade
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Registered: 5th Feb 03
Location: Hereford Rides: Ninja 600
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quote:
Originally posted by Nath
quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
123456 could come out every week, thats the same probability as a totally different set of numbers each week. FACT.
Don't talk bollox.
Nope, its 100% fact.
True story. Doesnt matter they are next to one another. It has no relation to if they should come out.
 i can see where u guys are coming from
but your both wrong.
The chances of 6 numbers coming out that aren't next to each other, are a lot higher than 6 numbers that are next to each other.
49 balls.. 6 balls come out.. chances of those 6 being 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc ? please..
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Paul_J
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Registered: 6th Jun 02
Location: London
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by Paul_J
Other thing that cracks me up, is that...
What if 100 people in one room close their eyes and think of numbers...
and 100 people in another room the other side of the uk do the same...
and each group produce different numbers? ...
who wins?  BOLLOCKS
Youve obviously not understood how he (even though it was bollocks) has tried to explain how its done.
In this situation, according to Derren, they would both come up with the same winning numbers.
They find the winning numbers, not the winning numbers find what they picked.
ah right... thought he was saying by a group predicted numbers together subconciously - they can influence the machine into selecting their numbers...
... but hang on... instead, he said ...
By people working together in harmony, they can tell the future of what a machine will predict...
Aaaahhhh - makes sense - still utter bullshit.
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
Location: Im the real one!
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quote:
Originally posted by AndyKent
TBH, I don't know what to believe. None of you can say whether what he's saying is true or false though can you.
Yes we can, as it comes down to maths and probability. And the fact is looking at the last 100,000 balls drawn in the lottery (let along the 50? they did) will not show any sort of pattern that will then persuade a MACHINE to throw out that sequence of balls.
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J da Silva
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Registered: 10th Apr 03
Location: The FACTory
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by Nath
True story. Doesnt matter they are next to one another. It has no relation to if they should come out.
Exactly. People have to learn to differentiate between something that has a memory and can be predicted, and something that has no memory at all and therefore unpredictable.
Taking it down to one number a week and not six, if 1 came out one week, the next week the machine would have just as much chance (1 in 49) to throw out a 1. Then the next week a 1 in 49 chance to throw a 1, etc. etc.
You're wasting your time Stabilizer, having read most of his replies in this thread it's clear he has no understanding of lack of memory that a machine has, or hasn't.
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
Location: Im the real one!
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quote:
Originally posted by Paul_J
ah right... thought he was saying by a group predicted numbers together subconciously - they can influence the machine into selecting their numbers...
... but hang on... instead, he said ...
By people working together in harmony, they can tell the future of what a machine will predict...
Aaaahhhh - makes sense - still utter bullshit.
Yup exactly, and not only can they predict, they use PREVIOUS draws to predict that future
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Carl
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Registered: 9th May 04
Location: Jimmy Bennett's la la land.
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quote:
Originally posted by AndyKent
TBH, I don't know what to believe. None of you can say whether what he's saying is true or false though can you.
In your opinion, what he said was rubbish, but short of trying it yourself (which you can't) you can't say with 100% conviction.
Yes we can because we aren't idiots.
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Paul_J
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Registered: 6th Jun 02
Location: London
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
The chances of 6 numbers coming out that aren't next to each other, are a lot higher than 6 numbers that are next to each other.
49 balls.. 6 balls come out.. chances of those 6 being 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc ? please..
1,2,3,4,5,6 = 13.9 million to one...
Same as 2,12,23,36,39 ...
Each balls odds of being picked are individually the same... therefore Cosmo is right, 1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely... the only difference is, generally by 'luck' they have a bit of a random spread, some high / some low... and once in the numerical order make you believe there has to be some low, some middle and some high numbers.
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
Location: Im the real one!
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
i can see where u guys are coming from
but your both wrong.
The chances of 6 numbers coming out that aren't next to each other, are a lot higher than 6 numbers that are next to each other.
49 balls.. 6 balls come out.. chances of those 6 being 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc ? please..
Are you joking? What did you get in GCSE maths?
If 1 is drawn in the lottery, does the machine know this? And therefore does it know that the 1 in 48 (1 ball has gone) chance number 2 has now has to rise as its chance of coming out is less than the others?
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
Location: Im the real one!
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quote:
Originally posted by Paul_J
1,2,3,4,5,6 = 13.9 million to one...
Same as 2,12,23,36,39 ...
Each balls odds of being picked are individually the same... therefore Cosmo is right, 1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely... the only difference is, generally by 'luck' they have a bit of a random spread, some high / some low... and once in the numerical order make you believe there has to be some low, some middle and some high numbers.
No no no, you were all right until you suggested 'luck' makes something have more of a random spread or not. 'Luck' does not exist!!
I do get what you're saying though, but mathematically (which is the correct way) luck does not exist.
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AndyKent
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Registered: 3rd Sep 05
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by AndyKent
TBH, I don't know what to believe. None of you can say whether what he's saying is true or false though can you.
Yes we can, as it comes down to maths and probability. And the fact is looking at the last 100,000 balls drawn in the lottery (let along the 50? they did) will not show any sort of pattern that will then persuade a MACHINE to throw out that sequence of balls.
If they had actually been seriously studying the previous results, then I would agree, but thats not what he was doing was it.
He showed the previous numbers but they didn't use any maths to work out the likelyhood of any particular number coming out, just individually made an independent decison on what they thought.
His 'explanation' was that, on average, people would simply guess the right number in the same way that they would guess the weight of a cow in a competition. None would actually know the answer, but collectively still reach the right conclusion.
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BabyBlade
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Registered: 5th Feb 03
Location: Hereford Rides: Ninja 600
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
i can see where u guys are coming from
but your both wrong.
The chances of 6 numbers coming out that aren't next to each other, are a lot higher than 6 numbers that are next to each other.
49 balls.. 6 balls come out.. chances of those 6 being 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc ? please..
Are you joking? What did you get in GCSE maths?
If 1 is drawn in the lottery, does the machine know this? And therefore does it know that the 1 in 48 (1 ball has gone) chance number 2 has now has to rise as its chance of coming out is less than the others?
are you joking?
Your dumber than you look..
OK lets put a bet on, I bet a draw will come out with 6 numbers that arent directly next to each other BEFORE a draw comes out with 6 numbers all directly next to each other..
infact i'll race to five, and i'd win all five...
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Paul_J
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Registered: 6th Jun 02
Location: London
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by Paul_J
1,2,3,4,5,6 = 13.9 million to one...
Same as 2,12,23,36,39 ...
Each balls odds of being picked are individually the same... therefore Cosmo is right, 1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely... the only difference is, generally by 'luck' they have a bit of a random spread, some high / some low... and once in the numerical order make you believe there has to be some low, some middle and some high numbers.
No no no, you were all right until you suggested 'luck' makes something have more of a random spread or not. 'Luck' does not exist!!
I do get what you're saying though, but mathematically (which is the correct way) luck does not exist.
luck was the wrong word, hence I put ' ' around it, as it was more tongue in cheek about what you'd call it...
but what I was trying to say is, you don't notice that the numbers could be 1,2,3,4,5,6 as the proportion of possibilties that would be 1,2,3,4,5,6 or close to that (for example 1,2,3,5,7,9) - is a very small proportion of all possibilites, compared to 'possible combinations' where you have small numbers and large numbers together spread.
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DannyB
Premium Member
Registered: 6th Feb 08
User status: Offline
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Are you mad Blade?
It's totally random, therefore any combination has an equal chance of coming out as much as the next combination.
[Edited on 11-09-2009 by DannyB]
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
Location: Im the real one!
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by AndyKent
If they had actually been seriously studying the previous results, then I would agree, but thats not what he was doing was it.
He showed the previous numbers but they didn't use any maths to work out the likelyhood of any particular number coming out, just individually made an independent decison on what they thought.
His 'explanation' was that, on average, people would simply guess the right number in the same way that they would guess the weight of a cow in a competition. None would actually know the answer, but collectively still reach the right conclusion.
Yes, I know what his explanation was, Im pointing out how maths proves he is wrong, even though he was trying to say it proves him right (without ever mentioning any sort of math theory).
The fact he used the previous numbers to allow the 24 people to make their mind up is enough to show its rubbish.
And even if they never looked at those numbers, are you suggesting that the way to win the lottery is to get 24 people together, they pick 6 numbers, and then the average of those numbers is what comes up?
If you are, then Im up for being one of 24 to enter next weeks Euromillions, will come out at about 3.5m each WHEN we win.
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BabyBlade
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Registered: 5th Feb 03
Location: Hereford Rides: Ninja 600
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quote:
Originally posted by DannyB
Are you mad Blade?
It's totally random, therefore any combination has an equal chance of coming out as much as the next combination.
[Edited on 11-09-2009 by DannyB]
Like I said I can see where you guys are coming from, but your still wrong.. I bet its never even happened.. all 6...
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Nath
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Registered: 3rd Apr 02
Location: MK
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
quote:
Originally posted by DannyB
Are you mad Blade?
It's totally random, therefore any combination has an equal chance of coming out as much as the next combination.
[Edited on 11-09-2009 by DannyB]
Like I said I can see where you guys are coming from, but your still wrong.. I bet its never even happened.. all 6...
I bet there are tons of combinations that havent happened though.
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Carl
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Registered: 9th May 04
Location: Jimmy Bennett's la la land.
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
i can see where u guys are coming from
but your both wrong.
The chances of 6 numbers coming out that aren't next to each other, are a lot higher than 6 numbers that are next to each other.
49 balls.. 6 balls come out.. chances of those 6 being 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc ? please..
Are you joking? What did you get in GCSE maths?
If 1 is drawn in the lottery, does the machine know this? And therefore does it know that the 1 in 48 (1 ball has gone) chance number 2 has now has to rise as its chance of coming out is less than the others?
are you joking?
Your dumber than you look..
OK lets put a bet on, I bet a draw will come out with 6 numbers that arent directly next to each other BEFORE a draw comes out with 6 numbers all directly next to each other..
infact i'll race to five, and i'd win all five...
You mug.
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BabyBlade
Member
Registered: 5th Feb 03
Location: Hereford Rides: Ninja 600
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by AndyKent
If they had actually been seriously studying the previous results, then I would agree, but thats not what he was doing was it.
He showed the previous numbers but they didn't use any maths to work out the likelyhood of any particular number coming out, just individually made an independent decison on what they thought.
His 'explanation' was that, on average, people would simply guess the right number in the same way that they would guess the weight of a cow in a competition. None would actually know the answer, but collectively still reach the right conclusion.
Yes, I know what his explanation was, Im pointing out how maths proves he is wrong, even though he was trying to say it proves him right (without ever mentioning any sort of math theory).
The fact he used the previous numbers to allow the 24 people to make their mind up is enough to show its rubbish.
And even if they never looked at those numbers, are you suggesting that the way to win the lottery is to get 24 people together, they pick 6 numbers, and then the average of those numbers is what comes up?
If you are, then Im up for being one of 24 to enter next weeks Euromillions, will come out at about 3.5m each WHEN we win.
can we do go karting for team building ?
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
Location: Im the real one!
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
are you joking?
Your dumber than you look..
OK lets put a bet on, I bet a draw will come out with 6 numbers that arent directly next to each other BEFORE a draw comes out with 6 numbers all directly next to each other..
infact i'll race to five, and i'd win all five...
Dont talk shit, the things are totally different.
Answer me this dumbshit...
number 6 comes out as the first number, am I correct or not saying that was a 1 in 49 chance?
number 7 comes out as the second number, am I correct or not saying that was a 1 in 48 chance?
number 8 comes out as the third number, am I correct or not saying this was a 1 in 47 chance?
etc.
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DannyB
Premium Member
Registered: 6th Feb 08
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Maybe not, but it could as they are randomly picked. The machine doesn't pick a ball then purposly pick one a lot greater than it, quite a lot of balls come out in sucession it just hasnt happened with all of them yet.
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BabyBlade
Member
Registered: 5th Feb 03
Location: Hereford Rides: Ninja 600
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by Nath
quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
quote:
Originally posted by DannyB
Are you mad Blade?
It's totally random, therefore any combination has an equal chance of coming out as much as the next combination.
[Edited on 11-09-2009 by DannyB]
Like I said I can see where you guys are coming from, but your still wrong.. I bet its never even happened.. all 6...
I bet there are tons of combinations that havent happened though.
millions..
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luciaadr
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Registered: 11th Aug 04
Location: Bexleyheath, Greater London
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
quote:
Originally posted by DannyB
Are you mad Blade?
It's totally random, therefore any combination has an equal chance of coming out as much as the next combination.
[Edited on 11-09-2009 by DannyB]
Like I said I can see where you guys are coming from, but your still wrong.. I bet its never even happened.. all 6...
There are millions of combinations that haven't been drawn! 123456 is just one of them!
Edit: I type slowly...
[Edited on 11-09-2009 by luciaadr]
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Nath
Member
Registered: 3rd Apr 02
Location: MK
User status: Offline
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
quote:
Originally posted by Nath
quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
quote:
Originally posted by DannyB
Are you mad Blade?
It's totally random, therefore any combination has an equal chance of coming out as much as the next combination.
[Edited on 11-09-2009 by DannyB]
Like I said I can see where you guys are coming from, but your still wrong.. I bet its never even happened.. all 6...
I bet there are tons of combinations that havent happened though.
millions..
So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 isn't any different then?
[Edited on 11-09-2009 by Nath]
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