SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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Taken from :
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html
24th November 2011 - Update
As in my last update on the 8th November, I stated that I was expecting some pattern changes that was slightly later than anticipated, as we head into the final third of November and most of December. The pattern that we have experienced for November to date, is not the pattern I am expecting for the meteorological winter of 2011-12 (December, January, February). I am however expecting a significant pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the majority of the upcoming winter.
As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions.
Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with some deep and widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. Any required updates will be posted accordingly.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com
Published: 24th November 2011 (09:37) GMT
Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.
'WILL IT SNOW' – as promised
Despite the recent increase in solar activity and the large sunspots that are visible on the solar disk at present (See Fig.1), solar activity still remains very low in terms of UV radiation.
FIG.1 SOHO (2011)
I am fully expecting a significant and imminent pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the upcoming winter. The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex (something to keep an important eye on, over the coming weeks). This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.
As I stated in my last update and many others, I fully expect the blocking to be more sustained this winter in comparison to the 2010/11 winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that a more sustained blocking pattern, could result in temperature or snowfall records being broken within that defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole.
One final note, I certainly never said anything about WIDESPREAD heavy snowfall in October, or Siberian temperatures to hit us in weeks. These are headlines to grab your attention, the quotes within the articles from myself read somewhat differently. Although I am very grateful to the Daily Express who have sufficiently raised enough awareness of another cold and snowy winter.
The final and big question on the cards is 'WILL IT SNOW' ?
My answer: YES, and it will be widespread across many parts of the UK.
You also have the defined time frame from myself, as you have done since very early this year.
UK Meteorological winter 2011/12
December 2011
Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.
January 2012
Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK
February 2012
Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts/many parts of the UK
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Ben G
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Registered: 12th Jan 07
Location: Essex
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cool. my car was frozen over this morning.
had to let the quickclear windscreen do it's thing.
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Robin
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Registered: 7th Jan 04
Location: Northants Drives: Clio 182 Cup
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So, 3 months of snow.
I'm buying a Unimog.
:panic:
[Edited on 28-11-2011 by Robin]
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Fro
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Registered: 20th Jun 06
Location: Rainham, Essex Drives: A3 2.0TDi Sport
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Got to use heated windscreen for first time today  Also had the red frost light on the dash 
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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I know certainly around here everyone has been getting lured into a false sense of security with the above average November Temperatures.
Thought it was a good article, no doubt the tabloids will be posting their "britain set for coldest winter since 65 million years BC" panic headlines soon.
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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Jambo's Jeep has just gone up by 2k 
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JonnyJ
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Registered: 23rd Sep 05
Location: Scotchland
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Very skeptical about any long range forecast, we can barely get it right for a few days in advance.
Snow in winter, whatever next.
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John
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Registered: 30th Jun 03
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James Madden is a nutcase, nothing in there is to be believed.
What he and others of his ilk are doing is saying the change is imminent because it's not matching what they 'predicted' in earlier forecasts.
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Tomnova16
Premium Member
Registered: 21st Jan 06
Location: Gerrards Cross Drives: Porsche 911
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hmm, looks like ill have to put of painting the porsche until end of feb
well unless it performs shite in the snow
http://www.lemass.co.uk/ for all your automotive/bodyshop needs
Located in Chalfont st Peter
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mwg
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Registered: 19th Feb 04
Location: South Lakes
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I've just bought a snow shovel and bag of grit so no way is it going to snow now I'm prepared for it.
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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First time I have seen one of his articles tbh.
John what does your 1337 hax0r mainframe tell you about this Winter in terms of forecast?
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John
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Registered: 30th Jun 03
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Nobody knows yet.
It's difficult enough to tell what will happen tomorrow let alone what will happen on the 6th of February.
These guys throw enough ideas out that they can latch onto some small bit of it being correct no matter what happens.
If it doesn't happen they'll blame the weather, not that it could be they've just made it up.
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Twiggy
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Registered: 15th Oct 04
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It was ment to snow like fuck in Oct?
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Rich H
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Registered: 26th Oct 05
Location: West Sussex Drives: E46 M3
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quote:
Originally posted by Fro
Got to use heated windscreen for first time today Also had the red frost light on the dash
That fcuking low temp beep and light is so annoying! Need to see if I can turn it off (got the same dash in my new Connect )
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Ben G
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Registered: 12th Jan 07
Location: Essex
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no beep in mine just had a red/yellow snowflake on the dash.
funny thing was when i started the car up, it still said 8c (from last night) and wondered how it could be 8c and frozen over then looked again and it said 1c.
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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Well i've switched to Winter Tyres and part ex'd the PERT for a HEFFER so no going back for me now
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DannyB
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Registered: 6th Feb 08
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There has been snow on the mountains around the village where I live for the last week or so, I expect it to snow soon and we will get a lot like we do every year.
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Ojc
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Registered: 14th Nov 00
Location: Reading: Drives : Clio 197
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Sorry they can't predict it for the weekend let alone 3 months time, they whoever they maybe said we would be snowed in from October, it's not even snowing in the Eifel yet so that's a sure sign that this winter is far more mild than expected
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John
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Registered: 30th Jun 03
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No it's not Ollie, it's a sign that it's not copying some other year yet.
You can't say the winter is milder than expected until it's finished.
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Robbo
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Registered: 6th Aug 02
Location: London
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was mild even in the docklands this morning 
also, we are not even in winter for another 3 weeks
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oceansoul
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Registered: 19th Jun 06
Location: Sunbury, Surrey
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quote:
Originally posted by Rich H
quote:
Originally posted by Fro
Got to use heated windscreen for first time today Also had the red frost light on the dash
That fcuking low temp beep and light is so annoying! Need to see if I can turn it off (got the same dash in my new Connect )
Bloke at work has a 11 plate connect. He said his was beeping at him his whole journey into work this morning!
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AlunJ
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Registered: 3rd Apr 07
Location: Newport
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Wonder if the 13" steels in my garage will fit the twingo, should be better in the snow?
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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Skinny cunt wheels in the snow FTW mate 
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Jambo
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Registered: 8th Sep 01
Location: Maidenhead, Drives: VXR Arctic
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quote:
Originally posted by SetH
Jambo's Jeep has just gone up by 2k
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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Jambo please take missus Jambo dogging in the Jeep then photos in the thread please.
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